Is DVD dying?

There have been many media reports lately that talk about DVD technology dying.

That may be true in the U.S., but how will Europe, Africa, Asia react? What will be the next platform for delivering movies? Is there a better way now?

Obviously Blu-ray is nice, but I wonder if web-delivered media will catch on quicker (given the concept of web-enabled TV's).

mkmurray wrote:Obviously Blu-ray is nice, but I wonder if web-delivered media will catch on quicker (given the concept of web-enabled TV's).

Although that seems like the path we are heading, I wonder what that experience will be like in areas that do not have broadband. Even when I was in Germany or Paris I found it difficult to find a solid broadband signal.

leonardmc wrote:There have been many media reports lately that talk about DVD technology dying.

That may be true in the U.S., but how will Europe, Africa, Asia react? What will be the next platform for delivering movies? Is there a better way now?

I'm not sure it's dying - I think it's more that blu-ray didn't catch on a well as people hoped. Apparently the improvement isn't enough to drive people to it in the numbers expected.

As for what's replacing it - I think that's easy - the web.

As for other countries, I think it all depends on the speed, reliability and cost structure of their networks. In the US we enjoy "unlimited" access such that we are only charged according to our access speed, not on the amount of data retrieved. I'm not sure that's true of other countries.

I suspect DVD may decline in popularity, but I don't know as it will go away. It's still a cheap way to store a movie. On-line content is only as good as it long as it remains on-line. DVD storage gives a feeling of permanence.

The other thing to think about here is that some of the ISP's are making noises about charging more for larger bandwith consumption. With DVD or higher resolution being shipped over the Internet, it may well make it a lot cheaper to buy a DVD with those new charges.

Blue-ray might start to dominate the market in the shops but so far its been a slow uptake and that might be partly due to DVD & DVB upscaling becoming better so Blue-ray is now not as great as it sounded at first.

If the web becomes a more dominant delivery method then I think DVD will still be there to allow us to store (backup) what we purchase and download over the net as I cannot see them making Blue-ray quality downloads available for anytime soon.

I am mostly excited about the DVB progress happening in Europe and particularly in the UK with content delivered via arial, sat and web using one platform (= one standard) via setup box to the TV (which will eventually be built-in). That will have hard disk too.
Its all in place except for the forthcoming built-in web-player which amazingly will be one agreed standard.

I certainly haven't seen or experienced any slowdown in the DVD industry. According to a Nielson survey back in Feb of this year, 33% of American households had HDTV capable sets. While this is impressive (and growing), it still leaves 2/3 of us that have no use for anything higher quality than a good old fashioned DVD from a Red Box (or NetFlix) for our entertainment needs.

Also, just in the past few years I've been seeing a major shift in the way large programs, operating systems, and computer games are being distributed on DVD's, replacing large CD "sets". I feel this trend will continue to be on the upswing for many years to come.

Even if DVDs die off for movies, they seem to be becoming more popular for data delivery. But whenever DVD's do die off, I think the internet and/or solid-state memory may be used in its place. The internet is great for accessibility, but bandwidth limitations could be an impedance for large media, in which case solid-state memory would provide an excellent delivery medium.

faazshift wrote:solid-state memory would provide an excellent delivery medium.

While it has the storage capability, it's still expensive for distribution. A DVD-R is maybe $1. How much electronic media can you buy for twice the price?

RussellHltn wrote:While it has the storage capability, it's still expensive for distribution. A DVD-R is maybe $1. How much electronic media can you buy for twice the price?

Well I'm not suggesting immediately, but the technology is continually improving and at some future point could become a feasible option, plus its reusable.

Another aspect that usually isn't considered is how we watch video. Their is nothing better then sitting in your family room watching a, fairly high quality, outside BD, video on your big screen, large plasma, or projected screen via a DVD in a player. Until high bandwidth becomes more affordable, VOD becomes more common place, and tools allow easier accessibility to HIGH bandwidth video content nothing beats kicking back in your own living room with some popcorn, family laying around, an easy chair, a 5.1 surround sound system, and a 1$ DVD from Redbox.

Blu-Ray may one day become a standard, as the DVD did with VHS. However, DVDs are much simpler to work with as far as codecs with video and audio. It is much more difficult to work with Blu-Ray discs, therefore until the software becomes more simple to use and cheapter to produce, DVD will be present for quite some time.

A coworker recently studied the DVD industry & shared his findings with me. The DVD market has been steady in spite of the economy because people prefer seek opportunities to escape during economic downturns and today people watch movies. Manufacturing is increasingly offshore, but US DVD stamper manufacturers & DVD manufacturers are continuing to do well. Manufacturers have not wholesale shifted to blu-ray manufacturing yet. That may relate more to the current lending circumstances than to the desirability of blu-ray to the end users. The manufacturing process differs, which requires capital.

I don't think we are going to see the "disappearance" of DVD like we did with VHS. There are probably a lot of reasons for this. I think one of the reasons we saw VHS go away is simply because of all of the amazing advantages that DVD had over VHS: interactivity, ability for multiple languages, quality does not diminish with age etc... The main difference that BluRay or HD has over DVD is simply quality and capacity. These improvements are not nearly as substantial as the improvements we saw in the jump from VHS to DVD.

I think Blu-Ray offers some interesting opportunities. From my work on the JavaME Gospel Library I am interested in trying to have the same application also work with BD-J, the Java platform which is embedded in the Blu-Ray player. BD-J is under the JavaME umbrella just as is MIDP which I am targeting for mobile phones.

If successful it could mean that for example a Blu-Ray disc for Sunday School could have the teacher and student manuals embedded into it along with scriptures and related conference talks.

For General Conference the Scriptures again would be able to be embedded along with transcripts of the conference in many languages.

I think the technology is perfectly capable of making this work today. In the mean time I have to get the Gospel Library up and running on mobile phones before worrying about Blu-Ray.

In the USA there is also a system available called ''True Two Way" as I understand it. These "True Two Way" set top boxes also have embedded Java which works much the same as BD-J. I don't know if the Church or Church members are involved with running the cable companies in Utah. If so such applications can be distributed through the cable networks as well.

In the UK we don't have "True Two Way" (Though certainly interactive TV and TV On-Demand exist but it isn't a standardised system like "True Two Way") but the technology may start going international if it get popular in the USA.

There is a lot of action even in the US regarding the set-top box issue, so we're not even near what will be the final outcome there, especially with those that do movie rentals, game delivery via the net and even the net itself, and other technologies that are just beginning to show up. In fact, they expect to sell 11 million TVs that will be Internet-ready next year alone, they'll sell somewhat less than that this year because many models will be released later this year.

That won't completely take away the need for DVD or even Blu-Ray, or a couple other things though.

But for the 'net, in the US there is an FCC proceeding aimed at making things more available on more devices, especially video content but that could well include audio and other media as well. Also there are already devices that along with smartphones and PCs including laptops, netbooks, and tablets like the iPad, will handle video and audio. And some hardware manufacturers are including Internet audio services in their in-dash units as well.

We will still need DVD for many applications, including some managed content within the Church, but many common general membership things can be done both ways, although eventually the web will be a larger way than DVD. The other reason we'll still use DVD is in areas where the Internet is not as prevalent or as easily available like in developed countries.

And I would note one other thing appears to be dying out that we may not be thinking of either, and the iPod has been the reason, 'bookshelf stereos', sometimes referred to as 'box stereos' or other names, are also starting to disappear. A recent survey I did of six Walmarts shows they are either gone or very few models are left compared to just last year. The replacement is iPod docks, and similar things. The truth is, home theater, iPods, etc., are changing the way we listen to and store music, or view video, or even using the net.

Digital is a 'game changer', and in the develpod world it has already brought about some things we need to be thinking of in as little as the next year or two, other things will change over time as well.

Interesting article on DVD ownership and trends that could take its place.

http://tinyurl.com/2f7w3hw

I see a differences between DVD movie sales and the viability of the format.

That article is focused on the income derived from selling movies on DVD. Yet, one of the alternative delivery methods, Redbox, relies on consumers having a DVD player. I would be interested in hearing how much of Netflix's customers still use DVD vs. their on-line streaming delivery.

I know that isn't the subject of this forum, but I will ask still:

Brazilian Distribution Services and Materials Management Office begin to make and sold national made DVDs with poor recording and appearance. The DVDs are "home-made" copies, or I believe it, because of the poor material. The medias (the disks) are purple collored, like DVD-R or DVD-RW medias. The DVD seal are poor printed. The cover are so bad that the DVD logo does not fit in the space. This cover are bad printed on a photo-paper, I believe.

The question: Are that new politics still in place at USA/Canada Distribution Services too? I believe only R$ 4,00 or R$ 5,00 in the product price aren't so hard to pay with the intention of reducing the price of the product.

As a DVDs collector, I hope the day Portuguese-voiced movies are available in better presentations again in Brazil.

MorettiDP wrote:....Brazilian Distribution Services and Materials Management Office begin to make and sold national made DVDs with poor recording and appearance. The DVDs are "home-made" copies, or I believe it, because of the poor material. The medias (the disks) are purple collored, like DVD-R or DVD-RW medias. The DVD seal are poor printed. The cover are so bad that the DVD logo does not fit in the space. This cover are bad printed on a photo-paper, I believe.

I assume that the DVD's your talking about are owned by the Church and not commercial DVD's that someone is copying and distributing w/o license:rolleyes:

techgy wrote:I assume that the DVD's your talking about are owned by the Church and not commercial DVD's that someone is copying and distributing w/o license:rolleyes:

Of course. This DVDs are sold by Distribution Services in Church distributrion stores, over the call center phone and from Materials Management to units and members by request at specific form...

In my opinion the tangible medium of discs is dead, Bluray included. With internet speed what is the need for discs is gone. Meeting houses are slowly getting some version of broadband internet, most connection speeds good enough to stream near or at DVD quality video.
My personal experience, in my home we no longer have Cable or DirecTV, we have high speed internet and a Roku box, and a Wii. On the Roku I get the LDS channel which streams the seminary videos, conference talks, music and more. If the church were to fully back this channel, we could install Roku boxes and wifi and never need a DVD in the building again. But the pitfalls are what if you want to show something that isn't on the site well you'd need a DVD player. I cant count the times I've been asked to pull a church video off the site and create a DVD of it for some class or stake meeting, streaming media is the way of the future.

I would like to convince my wife to allow us to purchase high speed internet via satellite (only option in rural America). She's not buying it. So it's physical media only here in God's country.

Not having a hard-line provider can make it more difficult, not to mention Satellite service is a bit slower and more expensive. If you ever get cable or fast DSL or Fiber its pretty nice, cut my monthly entertainment bill by more then half, did a whole write up on it on my blog.