Analysis of the Number of Convert Baptisms

I looked at Church membership statistics from 1999 to 2011. Using my TI-84 graphing calculator, I determined that the data points approximate a cubic polynomial (r^2 > 0.55). This model predicts that Brother Brook P. Hales will announce 280,775 - 280,776 convert baptisms this year. If the number continues to follow this model, the number will decrease to 280,102-280,103 by the end of this year, and keep decreasing until that number reaches 0 between 2022 and 2023.

But how can you predict that the trend will remain the same? After all, by this time next year we could have double the number of full-time missionaries we had, say, one year ago. Then that number is likely to decrease and level off but still remain higher than it's been up until now.

moonman239 wrote:keep decreasing until that number reaches 0 between 2022 and 2023.

I think that's the goal convert the whole world and the number will be zero convert baptisms!11

mrrad wrote:But how can you predict that the trend will remain the same? After all, by this time next year we could have double the number of full-time missionaries we had, say, one year ago. Then that number is likely to decrease and level off but still remain higher than it's been up until now.

You're right. I did perform a different analysis. I think the previous one looked at how the number of full-time missionaries during each surveyed year relates to the number of convert baptisms that same year. The results were a little surprising. As the number of full-time missionaries serving in that year went up, the number of convert baptisms in that year went down. We also have to consider how long converts usually take to be baptized after meeting the missionaries.

At one point it was said that the average missionary had four baptisms per capita per year, don't know how true that is now, but it looks like it may be around five to six a year now.

If we have double the missionaries out, and a stake president said that at a recent priesthood conference in Utah County they told them that by around July there will be 90,000+ missionaries out there. We could be easily looking at 500,000 or so converts by next year, I think it could come close to 400,000 for this year since the initial part of 'the surge' is really only now beginning to start going out to their in-field areas.

Those that are priesthood leaders are really going to have a lot of work to do in helping the new member progress and remain active. That's going to be the big thing going forward.

Nobody would seriously predict zero baptisms in a decade so a forecaster must ask why a forecast yields a strange result with a low R^2 for time series data. Other variables must be in play. Here are just a few possible variables that might explain your results. Picking beginning and ending points can drive trends. Are the years 1999 to 2011 typical or is 1999 a high point of convert baptisms and 2011 a low point. Did the number of missionaries, an important causal variable for convert baptisms, decline? In this case, the answer is yes. Could the decline in be caused by broader events such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Could the Great Recession have caused a decline in convert baptisms? If you are interested in these topics, you could visit my blog, “Blue Principles (http://www.economicbluprinciples.blogspot.com/ ).” While I have not attempted to predict convert baptisms, I have attempted to explain how war has affected missionary numbers.

Statistically, the number of missionaries over the years has had very little to no impact on convert baptisms.... as was noted and expanding the data also shows that convert baptisms has dropped with significant number of missionary increases.